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It was eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery berated him for not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his performances were a sign or a cause of Villa's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, however, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. When Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six fixtures, find themselves just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?

This is an exceptionally difficult question to address. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, while the victories have stacked up.

As per the data, in only two games has the team had an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a club that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, they seem weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the margins are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The current approach looks like to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping Rogers to bail them out with two precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more when facing United.

The initial strike originated from a superb shot, curled just inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United managed more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, will not continue to blasting the ball into the top corner forever.

Potential for Growth

Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet find their top level.

• The main striker might resume scoring again.
• The winger might become the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial England player.

The current run must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. When Rogers faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.